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. the challenger was ronald reagan. everybody knows how the election came out that year. that's not what we're talking ant here. what we're talking about is who won that first debate. incumbent president jimmy carter or was it the challenger, ronald reagan? >> leaving cleveland this morning, the president had a message for anyone who thought reagan had come across better in the debate. >> i think the issues are more important than the performance. >> the president is visibly more relaxed today than he was on the stage with governor reagan last night. since there's no way to know yet for sure which man helped himself the most, it's likely that the president is simply relieved that the debate that many of his advisers never wanted in the first place is finally behind him. >> relieved that it is over. so that was the coverage the day after the reagan/carter debate. because reagan went on to win the election that year, retrospectively that 1980 debate has been inviewed with a lot of over the top reagan worship stuff about his there you go again line and his are you better off than you were four
, because you weren't even born in 1980. >> i was not, yeah. >> but ronald reagan, people forget, before the debate, ronald reagan was painted as this looney, right-wing fanatic that would start world war iii, dr. strangelove, and it was the debate that stuck a needle in that balloon. >> i remember it well. >> not even born yet. i mean, this is romney's chance. >> sure. >> to connect with the american people. >> to pick up on mike's point, fascinating number from the poll is this. 51% of people who said they had heard or read something about romney in the last couple weeks said what they had heard or read made them think more negatively about him. more positively, that number was 48%. they've heard him going into this debate. this provides them a chance to say, listen, that guy you saw in the video, that's not me. i'm a different type of person. he can reset in that sense. i'm sort of with al on this. i spent a lot of time over the past week watching all of romney's debates from 2002. i watched every single debate. there were five of them. i read hundreds of clips in 2002. he was against
ronald reagan did in his debate against jimmy carter. people don't remember all the facts and figures, the recitation of the facts and figures, they remember a significant line or a significant phrase that brings them back to reality. >> senator john mccain is the only man who has debated both of these individuals. he weighed in on the expectations this morning. take a listen. >> serve and provide us -- >> it's not just that they go bankrupt, he doesn't understand -- >> comments that grabbed everybody's attention. because frankly, the candidates are too well prepared. they're well scripted. >> what you did not hear the beginning there, is the senator said i think you're going to see more viewers, than any debate in history. and then he also said he can't remember the last time that any of these things affected the outcome of a presidential race. save 1960 and 2000, have the debates ever really impacted the outcome of a race, chris kofinis? >> it's funny, i hear the debate about debates not necessarily mattering. and i actually disagree with that i think the 1980, the reagan/carter deb
four years later when, as president, he was challenged by ronald reagan. >> these are the kind of elements of a national health insurance important to the american people. governor reagan, again, typically, is against such a proposal. >> governor? >> there you go again. when i oppose medicare, there was another piece of legislation meeting the same problem before the congress. i happened to favor the other piece of legislation. >> that "there you go again" line is the line that mr. romney said he will be tempted to use himself against president obama. he of course will be tempted to use anything that will remind people of republican ronald reagan beating democrat jimmy carter in 1980. but when incumbent president george h.w. bush fumbled a question about how the national debt and the faltering economy affected him personally, president bush just could not give a personal answer to that question. but his challenger, a man named bill clinton, pounced. >> well, i've been governor of a small state for 12 years. i'll tell you how it's affected me. i have seen what's happened in this
. george w. bush, ronald reagan in '84, george h.w. bush in '92, the president didn't seem to be on his game. mitt romney made a surprise appearance to a cpac event in denver still courting the conservatives but say if you know people that voted for president obama, tell them to come on over to our side. that's ironic because i don't imagine he knows many conservative republicans who voted for president obama the last time or plan to this time. nevertheless, you're no fan of governor romney. did you become a fan last night as a conservative who has doubted his credibility from the minute he entered this race? >> well, i think my credentials as a non-romney show are pretty well secured. i have good street cred for your audience. frankly, i thought mitt romney did the best job of advancing even a modicom of viewpoints and stepping up on a national stage than like when al gore invented the internet. mitt romney, unlike john mccain, mitt romney wants to win the presidency, and a lot of conservatives have asked themselves that question the past couple of weeks. i think frankly liberals ought
looking for? ronald reagan, can he stand on the stage with president carter? will he seem presidential? we sometimes forget that president obama is the president. he'll be sharing that space. in many ways, that's the biggest and first calculation that people make. they will say, could he, governor romney, that is, have that role or not. >> and does he belong on that stage in the first place and then does he look presidential? and you're right, because ronald reagan was an actor in many people's minds, even though he was governor of california. and then they were stunned when he walked on that stage and said, i agree with most of reagan's policies but he seemed presidential. >> right. and he didn't stumble and then he was calm. he felt -- he felt like he deserved to be there. i think one of the things that governor romney has to do is not only share that he deserves to be there but that he has some substan, more than people realize. >> substantial and national review reports that romney's team thinks it's critical that romney endure himself to the american people in this debate. they say, q
that -- and then certainly by 1980, ronald reagan was very behind in the polls was just able to tidal wave over jimmy carter with quips like there you go again in a sort of staged format. since 1980, they have become part of the american landscape. >> the "new york times" recently wrote about this debate prep and the president of the united states is an awesome figure merely to share the platform with him on equal terms is the gain in stature, good performance will be gauged even better. why would any president agree to participate in an event that ultimately -- the -- because it's become now a demand, president obama suddenly bailed on debates. then, you know, he would be seeming like a poor sport. and also these debates are agreed upon long before the fall season, they're everything from the podium to the lighting, everything is worked out between the parties. >> do you think the presidential debate has ever changed the course of an election? >> i definitely do, i think we just talked about 1960, i think it changed it. i think in 1976, in 1980, i think also one could argue in 2000, it would al gore's kind
happen to subscribe to ronald reagan's maxim that peace comes through strength. i want to have a military that's so strong no one wants to test it. you see, you want to -- >> president obama and mitt romney both making their case to veterans in virginia today. the president talking about ending our trillion-dollar wars, at least eventually, and his opponent talking about ronald reagan. joining us now, john stanton, washington bureau chief at "buzz feed" and it's been way too long since we've had you on show. congratulations on your move,vy way, how is "buzz feed"? >> it's awe? >> one of the things you did around the convention is you greyhound bused down there, and sort of went out of your way to talk to regular on the street folks who were not necessarily getting, having their opinions plundered by pundits. when you're doing sort of "man on the street" talking to people about politics, do people ever talk about the wars? >> they do. talking, particularly, i was in savannah and talking to church people that were feeding the working poor and homeless people. there were a lot of veterans th
will turn in a campaign changing performance such as ronald reagan's in 1980. here is the truth about obama and romney, neither a stellar debater. obama didn't shine in the democratic primary debates, biden won them. that's why obama picked biden. candidate obama had a tendency to ramble in the debates, got better during mccain one on ones. while romney did well in this season's gop debates, had rough performances, bet you $10,000 he did. romney performances, the unspoken body language that the camera captured, they were brutal against ted kennedy. ivy league will enjoy biden versus ryan more. trust me. >>> turning back to the brand new battleground polls. there's a different pattern emerging, president obama is ahead in new hampshire, tighter in nevada and north carolina. joining me, director of the marist poll. good to see you in person. >> welcome to the home of the new york yankees. >> you're going to blow the playoff run. >> i am worried. >> we want the beltway series in washington. we have been looking at this as sort of the generic, the general all nine states. what is your take away
of the fabric of who the person is. when ronald reagan said there you go again, it was completely natural to him. as you know, chris, carter was right, he had opposed medicare at the start but when reagan said, there you go again, it actually sort of discounted everything else that carter had said in that debate. so they've got to be organic, they've got to be natural, they've got to be real. i think everybody at least in the political class who has seen this report is going to be watching the debate to see if we can sort of tick off, oh, that was the prepared zinger. did he bring it off? >> oh, yeah. >> the other thing is he's not very good at this. i mean, you know, i know they don't want him to be spontaneous because he'll say the wrong thing, but delivered a prepared funny line seems to me to be one of the hardest tasks probably even harder than telling us what's in his tax plan. >> as a journalist, joan, i want your view. suppose you're watching the debate as we all will be, everybody is going to be watching wednesday night, and you see what is obviously is prefab zinger that doesn't even s
the challenger but think about, for example, mitt romney's challenge versus ronald reagan's challenge in 1980, ronald reagan's challenge was to convince people that the viewers out there, that he had the gravitas, the intellectual force to be president. he didn't have to convince them he was likable. that seems to be an easier challenge to achieve than for a mitt romney to come across to people as somebody they want to have in their living room for the next four years talking to them when that has been the challenge all along that people have not for one reason or another really warmed up to him. that's going to be hard to do in the course of a debate and also in the course of a debate where you simultaneously want to be likable but also to rattle your opponent a little bit. >> you have to be negative and irritating and try to get president obama off his game, but at the same time be likable coming on the heels of the 47% remark. >> that's a lot. a lot of work mitt romney has to do. president obama has some real work to do it too. he, as we've seen him throughout the democratic nomination fig
, everybody always remembers the great zingers. you know, usually something from ronald reagan, but here we go again expecting that people are going to try a little bit too hard. there's a real danger when you've been supplied with premixed, ready-made zingers to insert into the debate that mitt romney will insert them at the wrong time or say them not quite right. the only thing worse than having no zinger is having a zinger that comes off badly and comes back to bite you. so i think that's a perilous way to go, but i'll be there in denver, and i look forward to the attempts because it will make it far more interesting. >> indeed. we're delighted, ron, that you're here. you have devealed to us for the first time that you have prepped with mitt romney previously. >> i have. >> tell us a little bit about that. >> well, it was a remarkable experience. it was the 2008 campaign when he was running in the primaries. he assembled a smart group of folks to go up and run him through the paces. that was in anticipation of the first debate on msnbc mott rated by chris matthews. each person had a role, i
it and after it will matter. the 1980 carter debate with ronald reagan where he said there you go again, calling the sitting president a liar basically. that's when carter started collapsing. you've got a few moments to make the one-liners catch and stick. all of the substance will get lost in the minutia. romney needs one worse than the president right now. >> instead of o owe is it like trying to figure out what the zinger is going to be that will get retweeted on a hash tag? >> yes, that it is. >> it makes me so sad. >> well, yes. as you said, the stakes are higher for mitt romney. keep this mind, this is a man who has been running for president for six years. >> right. >> it's come down to this one moment, this first debate on wednesday where he's got to change the trajectory of his campaign, of the narrative with at that point, what is it 35 days in the race. >>> yeah. >> you're the political scientist here. you're the nerd here at the table. just to my mind, i do not see how practically speaking mitt romney can change the trajectory and move his campaign into a positive position w
. bush did and what ronald reagan did. >> there is one element of truth. did the deduction side. the truth is the entire thing is up to congress. the president proposes the notion of the way that he should go. the side thea that he can stand up there and not tell anyone in america what he will veto if congress tries to do their mortgage deduction is a complete altercation of it. >> in which what you are supposed to do as a president is tell the american people and i guess congress the popular part of what you would do but it would be overstepping to sell to them the tough parts required to make it work. and if the president isn't going to be able to go out and get support for the hard parts. the tax cut part, that is the easy bit. >> thank you for joining me tonight. >> coming up, paul ryan keeps saying it takes too long to explain the math of his budget plan. but i think joe biden will let him have all the time that he needs let's week and later it is mitt romney versus big bird and in the rewrite what really happened in that debate last night. [ female announcer ] with swiffer
'm losing to this guy." playing michael dukakis. you really do have to go back to ronald reagan to find a republican that was in command during a presidential debate. and i predict that's going to excite the republican base in a way it hasn't been excited in a very long time. we're not used to winning debates like this. >> right. >> i'd even -- i think you're exactly right. and i'd push back even farther. he was better than nixon. and he was better than ford. so you could argue, except for president reagan, governor reagan then, it was, in fact, the strongest republican debate performance in the history of televised debates. the other thing that i find so interesting -- and joe, i wonder what you think about this -- is this was not a tea party message. one of the reasons perhaps governor romney did so well is that this might actually be the real governor romney at last. >> yep. >> and it was a very -- people could take me on on this, i would argue that was a mainstream conservative message that could have been largely unchanged except for the tales from 1980 forward. and that is somethi
to that wonderful by ronald reagan, there you go again. >> how much you want to bet, it doesn't work? >> $10,000 bet? >>> on the eve of election day in ohio, they are sleeping overnight at polling places. we'll go live to cleveland where nina turner is camping out for early voting. >>> and house majority leader eric cantor is fighting for his political life in his own district. wayne powell will join me live following tonight's big debate. >>> good evening, americans. good to have you with us. republicans are hoping for a game changer in the next few days, but romney's path to victory is starting to disappear. president obama is ahead in all of the vital swing states needed for victory. if the election were held today an associated press analysis shows president obama would win at least 271 electoral votes. 270 votes wins the presidency. the romney campaign, no doubt, is struggling to, say the least. romney's own running mate was forced to admit how their campaign has stumbled. >> so, yeah, we have had some missteps, but at the end of the day, the choice is really clear. we're giving people a clear
in history of, there you go again, ronald reagan and jimmy carter. that seems to be what they're going for. we thought let's come up with our own suggested zingers or mitt romney. >> we're all about helping out romney. >> i came up with one. i'll lead it off. maybe romney can say something like barack obama is almost as unreliable as my backup yacht. zing. >> zing! >> mine is even worse than that. >> impossible. >> barack obama, try baracko'pologizes for america. >> zinger. >> mine is want to hear a joke? the national debt. zing! >> i like the sound effect. >> i imagine romney might actually say to paraphrase "top gun" your ego is writing checks your government can't cash. >> you misunderstood the assignment. >> i got a good one from nick who helps us out. tough on foreign policy. even his hairline is receding. >> that's good. >> that's good. >> yeah, no. it's amazing to me when you look at these and you see this, it can be funnier not in presidential debates, senate races, house races, where they show up and try too hard and often you find that's their undoing. >> i was going to say, i th
. it came from ronald reagan during his debate with jimmy carter. reagan posed a simple question. >> are you better off than you were four years ago? >> four years later president reagan was 73 facing concerns about his age, an issue compounded by his shaky first debate and then turned the weakness into a strength with this line. >> i want you to know that also i will not make age an issue of this campaign. i am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent's youth and inexperience. >> bill clinton was on the other side of that equation while debating another 73 year old. this one was former senator bob dole. clinton handled the issue this way. >> i don't think senator bill is too old to be president. it's the age of his ideas that i question. >> so we'll have to wait and see if there is a memorable moment tonight that can shape the final month of the race. sometimes it is a one liner. sometimes it is a facial expression. >>> white house soup of the day. that is good soup. i wish i were eating it today. coconut shrimp. you are watching "the daily rundown" on msnbc. [ female announc
in the past three decades. ronald reagan made a deal with tip o'neil. it was for tax increases and spending control. >> hurt republicans when they ran for office, didn't it? >> they got the tax increases. they didn't get spending cuts. he got the tax increases ch he didn't get the spending cuts. >> do you think it was a governing mistake. if he gets elected president, is he going to regret that? >> i think the crisis we face financially is so severe that all the discussion of finances last night, you can fergs. we don't have the money to expand the military. we don't have the money you have to overhaul sos to keep it sound. >> he wants to spend more money in the military. do you think that's a mistake? >> the money isn't there. >> david, this is where the obama campaign wants to go. it's saying, yes, we lost on style. but romney made himself -- i mean, senator, it's a complicated argument he's making on these issues. >> absolutely. and it's going to make sense after the the election. we're facing a fiscal cliff. all the consumers will come into play. and i obama campaign is going to say, lo
is part of the generation of conservatives. ronald reagan brought them to washington who said, we have to change the law. >> i've been trying to tell everybody, i'm a conservative. i'm trying to conserve the voting rights act, conserve affirmative action. i'm the conservative. so glad jeffrey toobin came on the show to affirm that for me. >> that's my goal, rev. >> jeffrey toobin. the book is, the oath, the obama white house and the supreme court. you need to read it and get ready for this year. thanks for being here tonight, jeff. we'll be right back. stop! stop! stop! come back here! humans -- we are beautifully imperfect creatures living in an imperfect world. that's why liberty mutual insurance has your back with great ideas like our optional better car replacement. if your car is totaled, we give you the money to buy one a model year newer. call... and ask one of our insurance experts about it today. hello?! we believe our customers do their best out there in the world, and we do everything we can to be there for them when they need us. [car alarm blaring] call now and also ask ab
to have to be tweaked the way it was by ronald reagan and speaker, democratic speaker tip o'neill. but the basic structure is sound. but i want to talk about the values behind social security and medicare. and then talk about medicare. because that's the big driver -- >> you bet. >> -- of our deficits right now. you know, my grandmother, some of you know, helped to raise me, my grandparents did. my grandfather died a while back. my grandmother died three days before i was elected president. and she was fiercely independent. she worked her way up, only had a high school education, started as a secretary, ended up being the vice president of a local bank. and she ended up living alone by choice. and the reason she could be independent is because of social security and medicare. she had worked all her life, put in this money, and understood that there was a basic guarantee, a floor under which she could not go. and that's the perspective i bring when i think about what's called entitlements. you know, the name itself implies some sense of dependency on the part of these folks.
talk about all the time. i talked about tip o'neill and ronald reagan of the 1980s. didn't see eye to eye. they got things done. '90s you and bill clinton. a fascinating character. you guys obviously didn't see eye to eye. you got things done. and bill clinton is having a huge impact in this race. rich lowry of course of the national review said if you want to see when this election turned it was in the middle of bill clinton's speech. this guy still -- you said something about georgia ads. what was that? >> i was told last night by randy evans who is the national committeeman from georgia that there are more ads in georgia for obama with clinton in them than there are with obama in them. which makes sense. you know, bill clinton is the best political figure in terms of skill since ronald reagan. >> right. >> that's just a fact. >> right. >> and his ability to communicate, i thought his speech, which i had to watch, i actually didn't watch the obama speech. >> right. >> i watched the clinton speech. i thought it would be more creative, more interesting. and it turned out to be a lo
our thermostats a tad and guzzle a bit less gas. then came ronald reagan who's man great contributions to america were coupled with less great ones, including idea, which has dominate ourd political discourse ever since, that we should speak only of morning in mark and that optimism, like virtue, is its own rewar. it isn't, not if it's crowds out realism. >> let's not read the whole article. you talked to erskine bowles? >> about this? >> i'm saying we talked to him. you talked to erskine bowles, bill clinton's former chief of staff who's in the debt commission. he's scared. he's scared to death. >> about the things we can't say. >> about the fiscal cliff. what we can't say about taxes, what we can't say about cutting the taxes, what we can't say about medicate. >> you can't tell voters they're going to feel pain for anything. >> either side. >> we're not talked to as adults. we're talked to as children, which is our own fault because that's what we've shown here. when you listen to both candidates, it's leak a contest to say you'll less pain under me, you'll feel less pain under me. i
dwroefr come. it's not easy to beat an incumbent president, and mitt romney is no ronald reagan or bill clinton. >> when you have an incumbent president with 8% unemployment, it's very difficult to win. romney has proven to be the worst candidate we've seen in perhaps 30, 40 years. i go back to steve's memory now when we get into 50, 60, 70 years. i agree with what's said including your points about mccain. if romney ran in '08 as he is now, obviously he did run in '08 and it didn't work out with him. one day we blame romney, and we've seen a lot of blame for romney throughout the campaign. one day blaming the polling and liberal media. i think that's a stretch. when do we look at the ideology and the difficult sell that is for the american people. when you have a party where the conventional wisdom is that this is a party that is here for the rich to serve the rich and the corporations, that's a very difficult sell. i don't know that chris christie, regular guy, could sell that better. i don't know if rick santorum can sell that better than what we've seen already. >> well, obviously,
the opposite of what ronald reagan was to those reagan democrats. rightly or wrongly those reagan democrats thought romney had understood them, had come from a family a lot like theirs and cared about them. it's okay to be rich. it's not okay to be the candidate of the rich, for the rich, by the rim. >> there are big moments in everybody's campaign. and romney's 47% remark may be his. and todd akin is at the center. ♪ [ male announcer ] introducing a reason to look twice. the entirely new lexus es and the first-ever es hybrid. this is the pursuit of perfection. his morning starts with arthritis pain. and two pills. afternoon's overhaul starts with more pain. more pills. triple checking hydraulics. the evening brings more pain. so, back to more pills. almost done, when... hang on. stan's doctor recommended aleve. it can keep pain away all day with fewer pills than tylenol. this is rudy. who switched to aleve. and two pills for a day free of pain. ♪ [ female announcer ] and try aleve for relief from tough headaches. wouldn't it be nice if there was an easier, less-expensive option than us
just by being on the stage with an incumbent president, but you have to be ronald reagan and do a there you go again and make something of that in the ensuing campaign and also outside events, obviously, iran, the hostage situation was fatally damaging to jimmy carter. but -- >> you can only make the case that really three presidential elections of the modern elections, the debates really played an important role. 1980 was one of those. >> 1960. >> 1960 and probably gerald ford's election where he said that the eastern europe was not -- or poland was not dominated by the soviet union, made some difference in a close election. but this is going to be a close election. in spite of what you see in some of the polls, some are close now, the fundamental dynamics of this race are quite close and so its could make a difference in this race. >> thank you so much. >>> up next, is iraq unraveling? a look at where the u.s. policy stands now, next on "andrea mitchell reports." we make a simple thing. a thing that helps you buy other things. but plenty of companies do that. so we make someth
. it has been growing under obama. it's not explosive growth like ronald reagan had in 1984, able to win 49 states, but it's been slowly growing. you have that and you have another thing that political scientists kind of found there seems to be an advantage the less time your party has been in the white house, the more -- so bush sr. in '92 that's 12 years of republican rule. people are itching for change at that point. four years coming in off what obama inherited is a different situation. >> you know, one thing i would say is that the presidential level and at the gubernatorial level and the senatorial level, people are paying a lot more attention. there's a lot more money involved, seeing the ads, following the debates. when you get further -- at that level i would say the campaigns do matter. romney coming out and making his comments about the 47%, that had an impact. >> huge. >> it had a huge impact. i would say the obama campaign has been very skilled in the way that they framed romney early and also in framing this election in general as not just about the economy, but about the futu
. the government decided under ronald reagan at first, give them a tax credit. in other words, send them a tax -- >> incentivize them to work. >> ryan knows this but he's just pandering to the worst instincts of his audience. >> martin, i don't know how -- or what goes through someone like -- the head of someone like paul ryan where he isn't going to accept the framework of that proposition, which has been so damaging. really a sensible candidate wouldn't try and accept the premise of the question. he'd try and explain it. he'd say, this is where we want to move the country. not about work, but it's been so damaging to sort of accept it and engage in it and embrace it, it is such a losing proposition. even the research from his own campaign must tell him that. >> john, you have previously remarked to me on the fact you regard paul ryan as a smart man. a man that understands numbers. that 47% tape has been out there for almost three weeks and he's making that kind of comment yesterday. is he really that smart? >> well, he's very smart on the budget numbers, but his problem is he's in the grip o
is optimistic, it's going to play in the hall fun. but it will play better on tv. ronald reagan and bill clinton. say your opponent's record is bad and still be optimistic about america and i think both of these guys forget to think that the president's a little better on it. romney is an optimistic guy. he will be better for himself if he focuses on optimism. >> talk about strength. >> the republican strategist talks about this all the time. the moments that matter are moments where you do something to show that you're a strong leader and either by implication or a frontal attack the other person is not as strong. reagan and clinton are masters of this, through their demeanor, ceasing the moment, it will be played over and over again of strength, not weakness. >> my real prickish question, a difficult one. the alien from abroad, and he looked at it and said, who is that guy? and he said, it's romney. it seems to be out of the normal conduct of people thaw meet. it seems odd. >> all of the polls have said two to one that they expect obama to outperform romney. so in that sense if he gets up ther
, minneapolis contributor ron reagan. senator of former president, ronald reagan. and we have columnist megan mccain, daughter of former presidential candidate john mccain. megan, i want to start with you, was this debate a reprieve for mitt romney? steve says they are basically a reset moving forward in watching the numbers tighten with momentum, the wind at his back. >> let me tell you something, thomas, this morning is a good morning to be a romney supporter. yes, i definitely think that mitt romney came back swinging and completely reset the election and gained new momentum and enthusiasm and did an incredible job last night and i have never been more proud of him. >> ron, ed schultz told me liberals are emotional and disappointed that the president was not more aggressive. and others say this is equivalent of the rnc convention, a big lackluster. >> he was a bit off his game. it's a bit like watching the team going into the fourth quarter and they start playing defense. they don't try to win anymore. if you don't try to win in politics, you're losing. president obama strangely enough led ti
for the best negotiator in the business, ronald reagan, to achieve tax reform back in 1986. three years. >> only took us seven months under bush one. we put together a package because the president led that. the president met with foley, the president met with mitchell, he went down to congress to meet with them. he met with them in the white house. i was involve in negotiations with them and saw a president show leadership to get a bipartisan agreement. it didn't take him three years. it took him seven months. >> and the bush tax cuts are going to be continued by a president romney and then he will first begin negotiating with a new congress to try to come up with the money to pay for them? the bush tax cuts were continued by barack obama in 2010. they're in place now because barack obama supported them. he supported them because he recognized, as he said then, raising taxes when the economy is loudy is the wrong thing to do. he may not know it, but the economy is still lousy. you don't raise taxes now when the economy is lousy. >> to be continued, as always. governor sununu, thank you
't need a model. ronald reagan with the economy was never going to lose, and bill clinton won't lose in 1996. you can look at other cases where the campaigns matter. do you have a sense what that exact balance is, is there a wall to quantify it like the economy and actually campaign effects? >> we do try and quantify it where our model looks at two things. there's an economic part of it and a polls part of it. the closer to election day, the more we rely purely on polls, the theory is that if by october/november whatever impact there is to the economy hasn't been reflected in the polls, either the model is wrong or people think about other things. so right now, you know, actually do expect even before the debate the polls to it tighten some, because although the incumbent president gets a lot of credit, obama was ahead by five or six points by these polls for a while. naets hi that's high based on where the economy is. in some ways the debate brings the polls more into line with the fundamentals, which we think implies a tenuous advantage for obama. >> so, nate, if you could get into
't agree with that. is that right? >> i think it's premature in the sense in 1980 ronald reagan was running a bad campaign by lots of standards. he made a comment that trees pollute and that didn't go over well. he did say that. i'm serious. he made lots of other gaffes, but he went on to be president beating carter by quite a bit. i think romney is looking for a message. he produced a huge number of ads looking for something. maybe something comes out of the debate. this electorate is pretty hardened, and obama should be up by a point or two given the economy. that's where we are. so romney has not run a great campaign so far, but maybe this debate provides a springboard. we'll see. >> we will see. john gear, thank you very much. >> thank you. >> all the focus is on the candidates this month. october is also important for another reason. it's got something to do with this. >> we can handle gimpy and the at that rant at that heads, because our invitation was not based on barf and mike and molly as part of the crew. >> i guess we're not in the crew anymore. >> you know, i was kind of hoping
. we cover elections, not economics generally, but ronald reagan was re-elected with a 7.2% because he said it was the morning in america. optimism was what he sold. he was able to say 7.2% is great news, great news. he got re-elected with 49 states. he lost minnesota and the district of columbia with 7.2%. what should obama get with 7.8%? it seems like it's within the range there and everybody is pooh-poohing it and, oh, geez. i know why jack welch is scared, that number is too damn close to reagan's number. >> i think how this works with the president's narrative is that we're moving in the right direction, don't change -- you know, don't change horses, don't go back to a playbook that demonstrably didn't work, the george bush supply side stuff that he can legitimately tie to mitt romney. he had a narrative that said the economy is moving in the right direction, and i think this job report actually strengthens that narrative. and much more than levels of variables like the level of the employment rate, it's momentum that i think forms voters' views on the economy. >> i think it was i
one ready to go but make it look like it came off the top of your head. ronald reagan was a master at that. let me play a little clip. >> i will not make age an issue of this campaign. i'm not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent's youth and inexperience. >> it was a good one. it got a great laugh. perry, an argue was mamt by roger simon in politico this morning that mitt romney needs to have a few jokes to leave people with the impression he's a regular guy and not some cardboard cutout. how important are one liners and jakes? perry? >> it's so -- >> i'm sorry. robert. sorry. gosh. >> that's okay. i was waiting for that. it's very important because obviously what american people are looking for, they both know that these individuals are smart. what they're looking for is some type of personal impression by saying, you know what? i like this guy. not only does he get the job of being president, but he's funny and humorous as well. even george w. bush was good at that in 2004 and 2000. the question is whether mitt romney can connect with the american people. most know
is structurally sound. it's going to have to be tweaked the way it was by ronald reagan and speaker, democratic speaker tip o'neal. >> according to the congressional budget office, social security will run into financial trouble. by the year 2030 the amount social security pays out will exceed the tax revenue coming in. so, chris, in about 20 years the program will not be able to pay for itself. >> thank you for that, richard. we'll take a quick break, come back and let our panel weigh in on the medicare debate. we'll be right back. let's see if walmart can help you find the same look for less. okay. see? walmart has all these leading eyewear brands and styles. rockstar! really? yeah. oh, wow! oh, black frame looks good on you. yeah? you can get a complete pair starting at just -- $38. really?! and did you know that our glasses come with a free 12-month replacement guarantee? i didn't know walmart had all this. the price is impressive, the quality is too! come to walmart and see for yourself. find quality eyewear brands starting at just $38. only at walmart. what are they fitting, aliens? now w
in the last 40 years to obtain that kind of support was ronald reagan within his own party. barack obama is more popular within the party and the base right now at this point in the election than bill clinton was, than jimmy carter was with his party and bush sr. was with his party. energy is hard to measure. the measurements we have show a reaganesque party unity. >> matt has this great piece in the rolling stone where he says the presidential race never, ever should have been this close. the idea that we become like sports announcers. we want the tight game going into the fourth quarter. we want a hail mary pass at the end because it is more exciting. he points out that, in fact, this race is one given both who mitt romney is as a candidate as well as the extremely high support that president obama has within his base should never have been this close at all which goes to your point about sometimes the massive amount of money that's gone into the race to give us a different message about mitt romney. >> i want to add one disagreement to the disagreement. as much as popularity and the f
were talking about this yesterday. it happened to ronald reagan in 1984 in his first re-election debate. he was terrible. it happened to george h.w. bush in 1992 in his first re-election debate. he was terrible. it happened to george w. bush in 2004 in his first re-election debate. he was terrible as well. it is hard to be that insulated for four years. and this one takes being insulated to a new degree, this president does. as did george w. bush, i think, in his eight years. so i guess it is human nature to come out and be shocked that somebody's punching you in the face after being so protected and basically play some bubble wrap in four years like we do with our president. >> the president is usually pretty good when the game's on the line. and the game's going to be on the line in two weeks. he's got to perform better or it will be a real problem. i think just to focus on the debates forgets the fact that governor romney needs to perform in the next two weeks. he can't just wait for the next debate. he did a conservative event. he did hannity. i still don't get the logic of his frid
in public? he was comfortable doing it. >> ronald reagan knew the way he looked from every single direction so that when he made a gesture on camera he knew how that would come across on tv. for that carter was no match. >> okay. let's take a look at the chart we just brought up there from gallup. it shows how polls changed over the course of the debates in some of the most memorable elections. have any races in your estimation, michael, been won or lost solely in the debates? >> well, aside from the reagan-carter -- that was a special case because there was only one. it was ten days before. you showed the beginning, alex, of that terrible faux-pas saying the -- gerald ford probably would have won it without that faux-pas. >>> the numbers here for 1960. we had john f. kennedy who gained three percentage points after that performance that he gave while richard nixon continuously lost ground thereafter. the story goes that it was kennedy's tan, his youthful look that won him the first televised debate. do you think that's the full story? >> i think that's part of an lore. i think much more wa
, there will be an increase. the government is wasting enough money already. i believe in the ronald reagan approach -- if i can finish my answer, you should not feed the beast. let's put the beast on a diet and spend a little less money. >> did the department of homeland security, does that count as feeding the beast or not? >> i have no contract with the department of homeland security. one more try in an attack, doesn't work. never done a contract with the department of homeland security. don't have one planned. don't get any money from the government. >> sure. >> you can try all those attacks that you want. i do private business with private individuals. get no money from the government. want to try another one? >> mayor giuliani, if you're inviting it. the difference is that under mitt romney, rich people will pay a lot less in taxes than what they would pay under president obama, because president obama would let the bush tax cuts expire for higher earning individuals only. so rich people pay less under romney and more under obama. that is the ultimate answer, right? >> the ultimate answer is if eithe
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